During the MLB last year play-off, we present our Baseball Elo and patrons the best of each group in the playoffs and World Series to take a look. Today we publish two interactive with similar dimensions: our MLB predictions 2016 upcoming games preaudición and show the possibilities of each team in the playoffs and win the World Series, and the complete history of the MLB, the successes and failures of each tells long franchise history.
Thanks Retro Sheet we the game results and box scores collected in 1871 and used a classification system Elo based and to create predictive advantage to integrate baseball field model, the margin of victory, travel, recreation and - most importantly - the starters. Indexes also adjusted the park and the effects of time and the fact that the favorites are more likely to win in the playoffs than in the regular season.
Elo is a simple, but elegant system that can be adapted and adjusted constantly to integrate the available data. In our system, Elo baseball, each team has a rating of (the average is around 1500), and after each game, the winning team earns some Elo points, while the losing team will lose the same number of points. The number of points will be redeemed on the possibilities of our model base gave each team to win the game and the margin of victory; a gain of a large strange result in a greater exchange points Elo this victory for a favorite, and the margin of victory in the stock market.
Before each game, also set the score of each team on the basis of whether it has the advantage, how far it traveled in the game, the number of days they had and is expected to start with jug.
The advantage of playing at home is worth 24 points ELO in our model and travel adjustments, and the rest are worth 5 points each about 1 ;. These three components are combined "home, traveling and" section in the image above - 2
Krug adjustments may start for the team to have a material impact on the pre-qualification and the odds. For example, in June 2000, Pedro Martinez has a value of about 109 Elo - points in the Red Sox at every start, which corresponds to a 15 percent higher is to their chances of winning the game 3 This means Martínez scored 109 points more. than the average pitcher for his team (or even a little more, since its opening has already been included in the overall team classification).
To create this Launcher settings, use a version of the game proposed by Bill James scores Tango Tiger (and some of us modified) pitching isolate performance. After each game, the pitcher scored the game is calculated as follows:
47.4 + 1.5 + outs strikeouts - 2 trips * - * 2 Results - Short 3 * - 4 * runs
We maintain a moving average of the scores of games for each Jar Jar to produce their score 4 a list of pitchers with the highest score in history, the dates on which peaked and bonus corresponding Elo 5:.
| FIRST GIVEN NAME | FRANCHISING | DATE | SCORE THROWER | ADJ SCORE. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Martinez | BOS | 08/06/2000 | 78.0 | 108.6 |
| Randy Johnson | ARI | 16.05.2000 | 71.8 | 83.3 |
| Greg Maddux | ATL | 19/07/1995 | 71.8 | 67.3 |
| Roger Clemens | GATE | 07/28/1997 | 70.6 | 75.3 |
| Vance Dazzy | BOY | 05/05/1929 | 69.7 | 76.3 |
| Curt Schilling | ARI | 4.7.2002 | 69.1 | 64.3 |
| Bob Gibson | STL | 05/25/1969 | 68.6 | 76.6 |
| Dwight Gooden | NYM | 06/05/1986 | 68.5 | 74.4 |
| Frank Tanana | LAA | 06/24/1977 | 68.4 | 72.2 |
| Bob Feller | CLE | 08/04/1940 | 68.4 | 64.7 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 07/10/2015 | 68.3 | 63.4 |
| Sandy Koufax | BOY | 14/10/1965 | 68.1 | 64.4 |
| JR Richard | HOU | 04/30/1980 | 67.7 | 67.1 |
| Pete Alexander | PHI | 07/13/1915 | 67.7 | 64.7 |
| Johan Santana | MIN | 05/10/2004 | 67.6 | 66.9 |
| Kevin Brown | SD | 08/10/1998 | 67.4 | 65.4 |
| tom Seaver | NYM | 04/26/1972 | 67.3 | 72.8 |
| Lefty Grove | OAK | 06/13/1932 | 66.9 | 64.1 |
| Mike Scott | HOU | 05/18/1987 | 66.9 | 61.4 |
| Ron Guidry | NYY | 09/15/1978 | 66.9 | 62.4 |
Pitchers in the above table is recorded only once in their absolute maximum. If a list of several tips per player, Martinez, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens occupy 18 of the top 20 places.
In addition to the scores of each jar, we have a ground game score for each team - that - based on the results of the games every pitcher on this team. Elo setting each pitcher throws compared to music on your computer; provide high-level pitchers media team the team gain an advantage when they start, and jugs below average team the team a penalty. Note that in the above image, a pitcher an overall score another pitcher can have but a minor adjustment Elo; usually this means that his team had a better rotation and more games and game results started the largest share of the overall average team.
These are launchers in 2016, which provide the biggest boost when starting team:
| FIRST GIVEN NAME | EQUIPMENT | META | ADJ SCORE. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | BOY | 66.0 | 63.5 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 67.8 | 57.2 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 59.4 | 43.1 |
| Kenta Maeda | BOY | 60.7 | 38.5 |
| José Fernández | MIA | 57.3 | 36.5 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 57.1 | 35.8 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 58.4 | 34.6 |
| Chris sale | CHW | 60.0 | 32.3 |
| David Price | BOS | 57.9 | 28.6 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | 58.3 | 28.4 |
Since the first pitcher bonus two teams are additive, if the first page aborted two pitchers and can be very large, if a strong thrower a small pitcher over. The biggest change of all time according to our results Launcher 137 points Elo 1997 swing was back when Randy Johnson (87) against Ricky Bones (-50).
Our evaluations in 2016 preseason team are a mix of the late 2015 from the ratings of the season (average income of a third party) and four projection systems (PECOTA, zippers and Steamer Davenport). Our results Decanter 2015 preseason team scores launcher our bench last season with departures on the same four projection systems use.
We used Monte Carlo simulations to play the season thousands of times, how many times to see any team in the playoffs or won the World Series. As with the other provisions, we run "hot" simulations, which means that changes in the rating of a team in each of the simulated results based on simulation, including the premium for playoff victories. For games in which a pitcher is not yet known, we assume an average power pitcher will play.
Our entire history of MLB uses a simplified system that will take you to the little Elo pitchers, travel or relax 6 As expected considering., Is updated after each game.
It is too early, but the boy looks pretty good. We hope that the rest of the season and hope that you will join us.
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